Home > Archives > Additional Archives > Bill Bosl   Bill Bosl Department of Geophysics Stanford University bosl@stanford.edu http://pangea.Stanford.EDU/~bosl/ Modeling the Complex Earth: The need for "EarthObjects" for the Quantitative Study of Earth Systems   Geoscience in the 20th century evolved from a primarily descriptive science to a quantitative, predictive science. As we move into the next millennium, the need for quantitative tools that will allow scientists to devise ways to test theories about complex earth processes and predict the consequences of those theories is growing. The need for these tools is driven by fundamental problems facing the human race: the need to sustain supplies of natural resources, particularly energy resources, minimize and adjust to global environmental change, and to mitigate natural hazards in densely populated urban areas. While scientists attempt to grapple with the increasing complexity of coupled models of earth systems, there is a growing gap between rapidly advancing, sophisticated computational technology and the scientists' ability to utilize that technology to answer important scientific questions. While computational speed and efficiency have been the primary frontier for scientific computing, another equally challenging frontier is emerging: that of controlling software complexity, especially for parallel application codes. This frontier requires that computational scientists develop discipline specific software 'components' to encapsulate complex numerics. The resulting model components ('EarthObjects') can then be used to assemble and re-assemble coupled systems models. The need for tools that enable complex earth systems to be modeled with generic 'components' will be illustrated by computational research in two application areas: earthquake physics and characterizing the physical properties of methane hydrate materials. These two areas involve some of the many of the important issues that confront geoscience research today. The scientific results and the computational approach used to achieve these results will be presented and discussed. Earthquake science poses a particularly challenging problem for two reasons that are common to many investigations of complex earth systems: (1) there are a number of physical processes involved that occur in a coupled fashion, each of which requires complicated numerical models; and (2) we do not know or can not agree on the particular physical processes that are most important. Using our simulation tools that we have developed for crustal deformation and aftershock investigations as a starting point, an outline for a General Earthquake Model framework will be presented. I will conclude with a plea to computational scientists to join in the task of building public software components for geoscience research that will enable all geoscientists to participate in and contribute to the quantitative study of complex earth systems.
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